Nationals training and form guide

I have spent real some time on the water over the past three days. A late afternoon on the harbour with Les for nearly 2 hours on Friday, A couple of hours with the St George crowd on Saturday and back on the harbour this afternoon with Les, Alan and Marty.

I am knackered, which I account not to the sailing but to moving over a half ton of concrete from yard to barrow to trailer and then to tip, all by hand on Friday AM. I need a few days R & R.

Only one small issue with the boat when the vang mount detatched form the boom, all fixed, improved and tested today, boat is ready for the Geelong. Since boat is about to be sold I have to keep it all in good condition.

I am happy with my speed. In a straight line I am pacing it with boats I shouldn't, my corners are still dubious but I am now making almost all my Gybes without a splash, so certainly things are faster and smoother than when I last raced a regatta (SIRS). The new KA MSL13 is an improvement as is the new Ilett aft foil. I thought for a few years that the KA would not suit my very stiff Thorpey mast but after seeing everyone else getting stiffer and stiffer masts I took the plunge and it seems to be good. High and fast.

So how do the Sydney boats rate? The fastest boats I raced against were Dave Lister and Luka Damic, They were noticably faster than me. I seemed at least some of the time to have upwind pace (height really) on Les, Lea, Steve, and when they got ahead it was not by far. So I am in tier 2 of the fleet which with any luck will be better than my 50% target.

Anyway while we were sailing at St George on Sat, Les and the Woollahra All Stars were out racing. Reports are that Les was quite competitive, so if I am with him maybe the two St George hotshots have an edge.

Form Guide: I will not pick places but based on observations and reports, plus past regatta cudos/strategies/craft, here is my go at the top 10 in no particular order:

Best from Sydney:
Dave Lister (Alpha) has been the gun boat for over a year. He has had some niggling gear failures but will be looking at all details as he packs up for the trip south.
Luka Damic, (Prowler) as fast as Dave, newer boat so less likely to break, but has a habit of kacking it if he gets a bad result early.
Scott Babbage, same boat as Luka, but has better regatta record, probably better prepared in terms of fitness but speed reportedly a little off.
John Harris, Bladerider VRX, proven regatta record, world champ, very little time in a moth since, new untested boat , which may be too light to last the regatta out.

Best from rest of Aust:
AMAC of course, if the Mach2 is as good as the hype and if it stays together, same problem as John except I do not know if its even been in the water yet? He drives hard, so if the boat is up to it he will win races.
Only other one is Rod Ray from QLD who seems to get as much from an X8 as anyone. His last bout for a while as the boat is for sale in aid of a marriage home.

Thats only 6, so what foreigners have a show?

Bora (X8) the explorer has the best publicity campaign courtesy of Mr Block from Sailing Anarchy. At SIRS he was fast but got upstaged by the other yanks who have now gone home. (As instructed in traditional Aussie greeting)
Arnaud from Switz, (X8) proved un expectedly fast at Weymouth so will be faster now, I take this on report of others, I have yet to met him.
Simon Payne, the token pom, will have same issues as AMAC except he will be gentler on the boat and will go faster when the wind is light.

Thats 9, I have 1 left and I will pick someone who has never sailed a moth regatta. But he is 49er WC, stared in the best sailing TV program ever in not winning an Olympic medal last year and just placed 11th in the ACat WC with bugger all preparaton or cat experience. I have watched Nathan Outteridge race since he was about 11 and there was always something special. He has had a Bladerider to play with for a while and will be getting 110% from it, he knows his way around the wind.

I have left out the posibility of Rohan competeing as even if he was a secret late entry I understand the second VRX will not be ready and I doubt he will sail an FX.

OK pundits pull that apart.

edit: In the interest of scoring Blog points I should have mentioned Andrew Brown from the broken isles, because he beat the yanks in Melbourne before Chrismas. The other Aussie who almost made the list is from our other forgotten island, Rob from tassie who won a race at Sirs and was showing good speed.

That would be 12 so to round out the top 20 I should consider:
Alan Goddard, Steve Donovan, Lea Sitja, Greg Wise, Andrew Stevenson, Les Thorpe, Mark Robinson. Thats 21 so I see my target of making 50% in a fleet of 43 pretty daunting.

Weather for Geelong? The summer pattern has started. Looking like light in the mornings, 0-8 followed by 15-25 in the afternoons. With a good mix of am/pm it should sort out the all rounders. Can't wait.