Phil's Form Guide

This close to the Moth Worlds in UK it seems that it is the duty of all moth Bloggers to post a form guide and pick some winners. Scott has posted his at: http://scott.projectsomewhere.com/2008/05/14/the-form-2/
and being modest has not put himself on top. But he has sailed against most of the protagonists and has a better idea of what is needed than most.

For what it is worth here is my take:

The BIG factors are boats, weather and weight.
1. BOATS I think it will be unlikely that a boat other than a Bladerider or Prowler will win. I have not seen any evidence of other fast boats attending, they are either too new or still under developed. I may be wrong, it is posible to build a boat good enough as Dave Lister and John Gilmore have shown here at home, but Dave is not going to be at Weymouth.

The fast Prowler Zeros are with Scott, Simon Payne, John Ilett and Ben Croker. The obvious good Bladeriders are with AMAC, Bora, Matt Belcher, Graham Vials with John Harris, Andrew Brown and probably a few others close behind. This leaves people like Adam May out because no matter how good he is I do not think his boat is complete yet and that leaves him in a similar position as last year, unprepared.

2. The WEATHER is expected to be lightish, 8 to 12 kts mostly I understand. This will count out anyone over 75kg, Big Ben is obviously going for the holiday. If the wind is at all patchy expect the very small people to romp it in. At easter in less than 10 kts it was obvious that the fly weights were the first to fly and in minutes they are a leg ahead of anyone who does not fly. And the lightest skippers stay in the puffs longer and just get further in front.

3. So who is the lightest WEIGHT? Of the top Australians Matt has it, Scott is smallish but after a couple of seasons on 18s has bulked up. John Harris says he is heavier than he looks. Alan Goddard is light enough but he does not yet have the boat speed for a top placing. Of the foreigners It looks like Graham Vials is small enough and Simon and Adam are pretty small too, if Simon has not spent too much time on that famous rowing machine bulking up. I have never seen Bora or Brownie but I get the impression they may be a touch bigger.

So when you take out the people who are un prepared: Adam, May and John Ilett are still finishing boats, much too big like Ben, maybe a touch big like Brownie, (John and Bora?), then those that are left are:

John Harris: Going well in good winds but despite having all the right components seemed to go poorly in the light at easter.
Bora: Only sailed one moth regatta, and did well but from reports was not quite laid back enough for the big one, looks good on video tacking reach to reach but thats not really racing. But Scott picked his as #1?
AMAC: Has had a year getting over the intense 3 years of developing, designing and producing Bladerider. He has been sailing a bit but I doubt he will have the inovation this time without the full time involvement. He will be relieved from being chief BR repairman I hope which might improve the preparation of his own boat. He is a self driven sailor who deserved a WC win after plenty of minor places over decades.
Simon: Full time program, right boat, right weight, local practice, prevous champ, but I just feel he might get beeten at the post by the fly weights.
Scott: Similar to Simon without the full time moth program, but a lot of other sailing to fill the gaps. He is younger than Simon and maybe a touch lighter so I give him an edge.
Vials: Seems to be the find in UK this year. Pusuit race winds do not count, but he did very well last year at Garda on a boat which was self destructing, and I got the idea somewhere that he is small and good in the light.
Matt: Got everything right and has proven at the Aust nationals and at NSW champs over easter that he is very fast in the light. He is the first to foil and goes a long way with each gust. He was world #1 ranked 470 skipper last year and that means he can handle a big regatta pretty well (even if he lost his way round the pq moth course twice at easter, which probably cost him the regatta.) And he is Australian!

What else might affect things?
Sails? I suspect that the light winds might show up some equal or even better than the longstanding #1 KAs. I observed at easter that the front of the fleet included much more variety than has been normal. Scott has a Truflo while the rest seem to be all KA, maybe that will have an impact.

So my pick, Matt, and the rest in back order as above.